CHINA: RISK BEYOND VOLATILITY


Asia-analytica delivers alternative research on China's political economy.

Policy risk in a market morphing from totalitarian central planning to open market operations can never be about economic metrics and changes in decimal points.

The cookie-cutter mathematical models designed for and by the mature open economies of the West are distractions when it comes to China - a developing country where rules are constantly being re-written and where the all-pervasive presence of the state upends standard textbook assumptions about the profit environment.

Asia-analytica looks at risk that goes beyond volatility.

We provide early warnings of policy change and its impact on the operating landscape for business.

We take into account the broader social and geopolitical context constraining policymaking and re-setting government goals. We look at what is politically do-able, economically feasible and demographically possible.

While stock investors can make money on momentum and liquidity even when the forecasts and backgrounders they rely upon are wide off the mark, businesses on the ground have to get it right.

An exporter needs to tell fact from media hype in deciding whether to accept payment in renminbi for his goods. An investor planning a factory in Guangdong needs a feel for the likely direction of government policy on wages.

And an investor managing China risk needs to understand that a hard landing is not a GDP number, not for China and its leaders.

Asia-analytica is headed by Pauline Loong, an award-winning China researcher of some 25 years standing. She authors the Loong on China reports that provide a second opinion on the market and is a former director of Jardine Fleming (now part of JPMorgan) where she headed their China department for ten years.